New poll: Leave would win a referendum re-run

A new scientific opinion poll conducted by Savanta ComRes on behalf of the Sunday Mirror has revealed that Leave would win again if a re-run of the 2016 EU referendum was held today.

It comes amid a renewed slew of negative news stories about Britain’s process of withdrawal from the European Union. Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to stare down the European Commission with less than a fortnight left on the Brexit transition period.

The down-to-the-wire showdown has led pro-EU commentators to resume a familiar drum beat of concern about the consequences of leaving the EU without a deal.

Alastair Campbell, the former New Labour spin doctor, has referred to the process as “the greatest act of national self harm imaginable.”

But it appears voters do not share his sentiment, with very few changing their minds in the last four and a half years.

The new poll from Savanta ComRes suggests that eight in ten remain committed to their 2016 decision, a finding consistent with many other polls on the subject.

It also accords with research into the results of the 2019 general election. A massive survey from YouGov, whose pre-election MRP forecast was remarkably accurate, suggested that the Conservatives managed to secure a majority on the back of 74% of Leave voters by promising to “get Brexit done.”

But the result is quite remarkable when you look at the track record of Savanta ComRes (previously ComRes) in gauging public opinion on the issue.

A telephone poll for the Daily Mail and ITV, completed the day before the referendum, predicted an eight point Remain victory. In reality, Leave won by four points.

In a post-referendum post-mortem of polling failures, three esteemed political scientists included ComRes among the “three firms performing worst” and attributed a +6.72 per cent Remain bias to the pollster, the worst in the country.