Labour set to lose yet another working class seat

Boris Johnson’s Conservatives look set to claim another former red seat in next month’s Hartlepool by-election, latest polling suggests.

A new poll released by Survation last night showed a seven point lead for the Conservatives in what would be another damning blow for Keir Starmer.


The Tories are currently predicted to take 49 per cent of the vote compared to Labour’s 42 per cent.

The seat has returned to a two-horse race for the upcoming ballot after the Brexit Party caused both parties a scare in the 2019 general election, claiming 26 per cent of the vote. The key factor will be where the now-defunct Brexit Party’s share of the vote will fall.

The Survation poll suggests the majority of that vote will turn blue with the Conservatives’ vote share predicted to rise by 20 percentage points, compared to Labour’s more modest climb of 4 per cent.


To add insult to injury, Boris Johnson (+19%) currently enjoys a 33 percentage point net favourability lead over the Labour leader (-14%) with one in two of those polled in Hartlepool have a favourable view of the current prime minister.

Even worse, seven per cent of the Hartlepool electorate have never even heard of Keir Starmer, according to Survation.

More nationally, another poll reported on by this site on Monday gave an insight into where former Labour voters who turned blue in the 2019 election currently stand on the party.

Asked about Labour’s failure to gain in recent opinion polls, the overwhelming majority of respondents blamed the party (44%) itself or Keir Starmer personally (33%), rather than giving positive credit to Boris (9%) or the Conservative Party (3%).

27% of working class defectors also said the party was too “woke” and 39% of all switchers accused the party of resisting Brexit too much. 32% said Sir Keir Starmer himself was a poor leader and 47% accused him personally of point-scoring.